In the first four months of 2008 the Italian natural stone industry recorded exports of 1 million 333 thousand tons of materials and products for a value of almos t 560 million euros, while imports stood at 1 million 41 thousand tons for a value of 194 million and a half euros, with negative figures in both cases compared to the same period in 2007. The negative swing varies significantly according to the items, types of products and materials as well as the markets and even if there were to be significant improvements in the rest of the year it would be very difficult to recover as far as some important items are concerned. In fact the general picture is not positive, especially in terms of the prospects for some traditionally important countries.
According to the Internazionale Marmi e Macchine Research office and based on Istat data, exports of the most important items and types (marble, travertine and granite, raw materials and finished products) amounted to one million tons for a value of 538 million euros, showing a positive trend over the year in terms of quantity of 2,78% (considering that 2007 was a year of recovery) yet a negative trend in terms of value of -2,34%. (see table number 1 in appendix).
Hence there is no doubt about the public?s appreciation of the materials yet obviously the negative international picture and the continuous strengthening of the euro compared to the dollar are significant factors since many markets use the dollar as a reference currency and therefore force industry players to bear the brunt of the difference in exchange rates with the euro. The variations in terms of quantity and value have led to a reduction in the average unit value of almost -5% on all items on the exports list taken together, and if we include slate, pumice stone, chips and powders this increases to -6,17% in terms of quantity and -3,2% in terms of value.
The figures are not negative for all items and all geographical areas though since marble (together with travertine) is experiencing a more positive trend, especially for blocks and semi-finished products, so much so that ?blocks? is the only item that has shown an increase in all the major geographic areas, with the exception of the European Union. The Far East was once again the leading market for marble blocks, followed by North Africa, while exports of marble finished products rose both in terms of quantity and value but not in terms of average unit value which meant that the increase in market shares which took place in 2007 did not lead to an increase in the sales price. The situation as regards granites is quite different. In this case exports fell in terms of quantity and value for both raw materials and finished products which account for most of granite exports. Already in 2007 marble was clearly overtaking granite yet today the gap between marble and travertine and granite is even more significant. Altogether exports of marble in blocks and finished products increased from a value of 293 million and a half euros to 307 million and 660 thousand euros in the first four months of 2007 while granite exports fell from 241 million to 221 million and today account for less than 42% of exports. Marble has however undergone a reduction in terms of average unit values (per ton exported, that is independently of the type of product or processing) of -4,83% against -1,83% for granite.
This is a very complicated situation with different results according to the different areas.
Again, according to the data processed by the Internazionale Marmi e Macchine, while in North America Italian exports to Canada were positive, the United States recorded a significant reduction, with only one positive item both in volume and value that was granite in blocks and slabs which however fell in terms of average values per ton. In the States the average values stood their ground fairly well in terms of marble finished products, more and more in the top market bracket yet it still remains to be seen to what extent the real estate market will influence the building industry and hence the stone industry.
Considering the most important items, the European Union recorded a significant drop in exports from Italian companies, in particular for granite, and above all finished granite products. Germany alone, for example, went from 65 million euros in the first four months of 2007 to 52 and a half in the same period in 2008, with a reduction concentrated on granite finished products which lost -25,6% in value while marble finished products recorded a positive trend. The value of United Kingdom exports remained stable while Poland?s grew yet the average unit value fell. Russia?s position became increasingly important, especially in terms of marble finished products, yet lively trends were recorded for the other items too. Switzerland?s trend was still positive yet recorded a slowdown in marble imports in terms of quantity and value. Fluctuations occurred in North Africa with Libya showing very positive results together with Algeria and Egypt while Morocco positioned itself more on higher quality import segments. In the Middle East Saudi Arabia, together with Kuwait, guaranteed a positive trend for the entire area while Saudi imported above all marble finished products and the average value of finished products imported from Kuwait grew.
A few positive results were recorded in the Far East too where both volumes and values, including average values, increased, except for granites, while marble finished products did not record any great performance and settled in very high quality yet smaller market brackets. The most positive trends in the area were seen overall in India and China as well as in Indonesia, Singapore and Hong Kong. There was an alternating mixture of positive and negative signs in other countries such as South Korea (positive) and Japan and Taiwan (negative). Finally, in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, which imports above all marble finished products, guaranteed, together with Kuwait, positive results in terms of imports in the entire area.
Different considerations apply to Italian imports which accounted for 828 thousand tons for a value of 179 million and 248 thousand euros in the first four months of 2008 (see table number 2) for the most important items, with a negative trend both in terms of quantity (-7,39%) and value: minus 7,36%. Marble imports did not fall yet granite blocks and slabs imports did although they maintained a high unit value. The major countries remained the traditional ones although there were some new entries. Mozambique and Angola, for example, recorded positive results as did Vietnam and Albania (although the trend needs to be monitored in the long term) despite the still modest quantities and values, while imports from China increased, albeit in a limited way, and raw granite imports from India fell.
?The picture is not so bright on the international markets and for the two major areas and, even if after March the tension seemed to ease off, recent events in the macro economic picture generate anxiety. The stone industry is smaller than other industries ? commented the Internazionale Marmi e Macchine Chairman, Giorgio Bianchini ? but it is part of the wider picture and is consequently affected by exterrnal events. The economic recession, speculation and events that are difficult to foresee have in fact greatly affected the stone industry yet it has always found the resources and the ?spirit? to find its way out by improving its organisation, updating its promotion and insisting on quality and competitiveness?.
1. The Apuo-Ligurian-Versilian district: in the first three months of 2008 Volumes up and values down
How has the Apuo-Ligurian-Versilian district fared in such a difficult situation?
In view of the overall situation, the Tuscan-Ligurian district recorded a less negative performance compared to other areas today which are under the stress of impetuous international competition. What the district has is a unique resource, marble, which has fervent supporters and this leads to a competitive advantage which is reflected both in demand and supply. The fact that it is possible to count on the availability of this ?white? and work in high end finished product market brackets has to some extent compensated for some negative points that characterise exports from the Tuscan-Ligurian area even though this was not enough to cancel the negative trends on the international markets, especially since particularly important partners such as the United States fell into the crisis. The Tuscan-Ligurian district exported products to the tune of 100 million euros and 256 thousand tons (excluding chips, powders and slates, as per table in appendix), with a growth in terms of volume of 19,8%, an overall drop in value of -5,5%, distributed unevenly among the various export items and the various markets which need to be monitored over the coming months. According to the Internazionale Marmi e Macchine in Carrara, which as always has processed data from ISTAT sources, in the short period taken into consideration even minimum variations determined sometimes high percentage changes and the results cancel out the increases achieved with great difficulty over the last two years and it is not much use noting that other quarrying and production areas are in much more difficult situations especially in terms of exports on some markets.
Finally a look at the areas that have best sustained exports in the district.
The European Union, where the only positive country was France, held its ground above all in the high end bracket while exports to Europe outside the Union continued to rise, especially for high quality marble finished products. Positive signs still from Libya, Morocco and Algeria, especially for marble in the form of raw materials and semi-finished products and as an area now account for almost 30% of the North American market. As regards North America, the reduction in exports did not affect the area in terms of raw materials and semi-finished products although it did affect finished marble and granite products. Despite the euro the average unit values were still strong and this is further confirmed by the fact that if the industry manages to position itself in markets where quality finished products are important it is well placed to face the challenge. The south was still disappointing, with the exception of Saudi Arabia and partly Kuwait, while there was a slight increase in the Far East, above all China, but also to some extent Hong Kong and South Korea too. In general it was marble that accounted for the positive trend in exports, more in terms of volume than value, while the other materials suffered.
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